S&P Expects Rapid Rise in CMBS Delinquencies in Europe

by: Research Recap December 02, 2008

Research Recap

About this author:

Become a Contributor Submit an Article

Font Size:
Print
Email

The continued turmoil in financial markets and further declines reported in European real estate values has had only moderate impact on European commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), but Standard & Poor’s says it bodes badly for Europe’s commercial real estate lending markets.

“At this stage, the delinquency loan rate in European CMBS (that is, loans experiencing non-payment of either interest or principal) is surprisingly low at only nine loans, representing 1.02% by balance. This is despite the unprecedented market turmoil and contraction in credit”

“Nevertheless, if, as we think likely, these factors translate into lower occupier and investment demand, this will place additional stress on borrowers and on market values.”

In this context, we expect the number of delinquencies to rise rapidly in the short term. Over the medium term, if conditions continue this is likely to result in losses on rated notes.

“For European CMBS, delinquencies will in our view present servicers and special servicers with some difficult decisions: Accelerate now and force a sale of the property in a depressed and declining market that may exaggerate losses, or hold on in the face of an uncertain future.”

Why Do Two Wrongs Have to Make a Political Compromise? Jan 05, 2009
Earnings Season Preview: Anticipate 'Pulled Guidance' Jan 05, 2009
How Did Madoff Fool the SEC? Jan 05, 2009
People Who Got Lost Suggesting Path Forward Jan 05, 2009
5 Small Cap Stocks for 2009 Jan 05, 2009

Top Rated Comment Streams:

Numbers are net rating-

1.
Hedged In660
2.
John Lounsbury526
3.
Smarty_Pants386
4.
cos1000286
5.
NOWHEREMAN273

See all Top 100 »

More by Research Recap

Outlook Stable for Metal Producers Despite Price Weakness
on Jan 05, 2009 | about UBM,DBB
Reforms of Credit Rating Agencies Likely to Be Modest
on Jan 05, 2009
Capital Goods Sector: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly
on Dec 30, 2008
Bull Market in Global Executive Pessimism
on Dec 29, 2008

Free E-Newsletters
Wall Street Breakfast - Sample Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News by SA Editor Rachael Granby Bank trio becomes duo. Wells Fargo (WFC) will become the largest U.S. bank by branches with its bid for Wachovia (WB), after Citigroup (C) withdrew from compromise negotiations late yesterday on concerns about the quality of some of Wachovia's assets. Wells Fargo, with a bid valued at $11.4B, expects the purchase to be completed by the end of the year, and denies it will have to absorb assets shakier than originally thought. Government considers next steps. As the financial crisis continues to worsen, the U.S. government is considering two dramatic steps to turn around, or at least slow, the damage: guaranteeing billions of dollars in bank debt and temporarily insuring all U.S. bank deposits. The moves, which would mark the government's most extensive intervention to date, are in discussion stages only. Credit stays frozen. As frozen credit markets refuse to thaw, the cost of default protection on corporate bonds reaches new global records amid investor concerns the credit crisis will trigger corporate failures as companies struggle to finance their businesses. Interbank lending remains limited, and borrowing from the Fed's expanded discount window continued its trend of setting new highs every week, as the total daily average rose to $420.2B vs. $367.8B last week. Oil demand withers. The International Energy Agency warned Friday worldwide oil demand... Email continues...
The Macro View - Sample Seeking Alpha - The Macro View Market Outlook An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy Long Term, Financials Look Good by Michael Filloon Round 3 of the Recession: Main Street by Paul Fekula Oil Price Oil Below $75: Increased Chance of OPEC Production Cuts by Money Morning Oil Down 48% from Highs by Bespoke Investment Group Oil & Gas Headed Lower as Economy Strikes Consumers by Michael Filloon Economy Long Term, Financials Look Good by Michael Filloon Round 3 of the Recession: Main Street by Paul Fekula Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole Email continues...
Investing Ideas - Sample Seeking Alpha - Investing Ideas Cramer's Picks Farewell Financial Bear Raids - Cramer's Mad Money (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Better Picks - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Perhaps Industrials... Cramer's Stop Trading! (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Long Ideas Utilities Beginning to Generate Interest for Longs by Joe Kunkle The Long Case for Encore Capital by Value Investor Insight 2009: The Year of the Channel for SaaS Vendors? by Jeff Kaplan Two Global Infrastructure Investment Opportunities in ETFs by Investment U Market Behaves Sanely - Fast Money Recap (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Short Ideas Why Short Sellers Are the Heroes of Wall Street by Investment U Salesforce.com: Pricey and Coming Down Fast by Charlie Bottle Google: 3Q Results Reveal Chinks in the Armor by Mark Krieger Email continues...
Jim Cramer's Picks -
Sample

Better Choices - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/15/08)

by SA Editor Rachael Granby

Stocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramers Mad Money TV program,
Wednesday, October 15.

Bullish Calls:

Continental Resources (CLR) -- "This is a remarkable decline. All of the high quality ones are down so much, I can't go against it. This is where you pull the trigger.
3M (MMM) -- The moment this stock starts yielding 5%, I'm a buyer. Until then, keep your powder dry.

Bearish Calls:

Computer Sciences (CSC) -- This is a company that was going to be bought, but they passed up the chance. Now I don't want to buy it."
Annaly Mortgage (NLY) -- I think this is a business model that needs to borrow money. Definitively do not buy."
Northrop Grumman (NOC) -- You can't own the defense stocks right now. If I had to own one, I'd look at Lockheed Martin (LMT) with its good dividend.
Email continues...
Stocks & Sectors - Sample Seeking Alpha - Stocks & Sectors Internet eBay: Q3 Looks Good but Q4 Guidance Disappoints by Greg Feirman Is Google Feeling Lucky? by Sam Gustin Why Today Could Suck for Tech by Kevin Maney Media A Triple Financial Whammy Afflicts Newspapers by Ken Doctor Three Years On, Buying MySpace Looks Like One of Murdoch's Smartest Bets by Erick Schonfeld How Will Arbitron Fare in This Market? by Sreeni Meka Telecom Ten Ways to Invest in Louisiana by Stockerblog Earnings Preview: Electro-Optical Engineering by theflyonthewall.com Shared Docks Via WiFi All the Rage by Dean Bubley Financial Switzerland Strengthens Its Banks; Short Interest Remains Low by Jessica Johnson Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole LIBOR Shows Worst Is Yet to Come for Credit Markets by Keith Fitz-Gerald Email continues...
Global Markets - Sample Seeking Alpha - Global Markets China An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy USANA Health Sciences Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript Perfect World Announces Share Repurchase Program by Trader Mark China: Hot Money Inflows Down, Nervousness Up by Michael Pettis India Indian Economy Has Much to Cheer About by Equitymaster India: RBI Cuts Cash Reserve Ratio by Equitymaster India: Markets Continue Downward by Equitymaster Japan Sanyo Enters Thin-Film Market, Goes Up Against Sharp by Greentech Media Asia Four International Dividend Stocks to Watch by David Hunkar Eastern Europe Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole Email continues...
Alternative Energy Investing - Sample Seeking Alpha - Alternative Energy Alternative Energy Seven Stocks for an Impending Apocalypse by H.J. Huneycutt Solar Shares Under Pressure From Credit Crunch and Pricing by Eric Savitz Trina Solar Looks Good, Though Market Yawns by Trader Mark The Electric Car Market: Wise Energy Use Stocks by Tom Konrad Investing in the Power of the Sea
ETF Daily - Sample Seeking Alpha - ETF Daily Sector ETFs Too Early To Buy Homebuilders ETF by Larry MacDonald Utilities Beginning to Generate Interest for Longs by Joe Kunkle Two Global Infrastructure Investment Opportunities in ETFs by Investment U New ETFs First Trust Launches Infrastructure ETF with Global Reach by Index Universe Overview and Analysis of the Global Generic Drug Industry by Mike Havrilla Emerging Market ETFs Brazil Is the Best of BRIC by Carl T. Delfeld Playing the Market in Difficult Times by Jason Hamlin
The Daily Dispatch - Sample Seeking Alpha - Daily Dispatch Wall Street Breakfast Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News by SA Editor Rachael Granby US Market An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News by SA Editor Rachael Granby Housing & Real Estate Too Early To Buy Homebuilders ETF by Larry MacDonald Another 'Root Cause' That Isn't: Tumbling Home Prices by Tim Iacono Transcripts TrueBlue, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript Polycom, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript ETF Too Early To Buy Homebuilders ETF by Larry MacDonald
We don't spam