Mumbai Attacks: Implications for Traders
The recent attacks by militants in Mumbai have been widely reported by the international media. Here are some thoughts on how this will affect financial markets:
1. Gold. The proliferation of militant networks around the world has coincided with the emergence of a bull market in gold. The more unexpected attacks we see by organizations that are not nation-states, the more we can see a rise in gold -- and likely silver as well.
2. Defense ETFs. US President-elect Barack Obama has already declared Pakistan a threat and has suggested he may order troops into Pakistan. Moreover, in light of these recent attacks, India has already requested Pakistan take action. In the event of US entry into Pakistan, this would be a bullish sign for US defense ETFs, like ITA and PPA. It is crucial to note, however, that we are in a bear market in US equities; personally, I don't see this bear market ending soon, and thus would be reluctant to go buy ETFs and stocks that are dependent on the US macroeconomy.
3. India ETFs. ETFs that track the Indian economy on US exchanges -- namely EPI and PIN -- may see additional downward movements. These markets were already in a bear trend prior to the attacks, similar to how US markets were already in a bear trend prior to 9/11. This would be an additional bearish argument for India ETFs.
Disclosure: Long gold and silver. No positions in Defense or India ETFs.
Related Articles
|
Top Rated Comment Streams:
-
1.Hedged In662
- 2.
-
3.Smarty_Pants390
-
4.cos1000288
-
5.axelrod608280
- Free E-Newsletters
- About Seeking Alpha
- About Us
- Contact Us
- What's New
- Readers Feedback
- Advertise With Us
- Contributors
- Contribute an Article
- Feature Your Book
- Our Contributors
- Anonymous Contributions
- Dispute an Article?
- Legal
- Terms of Use
- Privacy
- Copyright
This article has 1 comment:
-
NCPL
-
34 Comments
My Website
Dec 03 03:04 AMAaron Lee Smith, MD of Superfund Financial mentions a rally coming soon but downside risks are there and eventually stocks are a dangerous place to be in.
www.youtube.com/watch?...